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Raising Vietnamese’s height: over-target?
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Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung has approved a strategy to improve Vietnamese’s height by 2020. VietNamNet introduces an article by expert Nguyen Van Tuan about this strategy.

Tuan said that based on local and international medical history, this goal seems to be unfeasible.

According to the above strategy, the average height of Vietnamese youth will increase from 1.61m at present to 1.65m. In addition, average lifespan will rise from 73 to 75. The ratio of malnourished children of less than five will reduce from 17.5, to less than 5 percent.

The measures to achieve the goals are not clear while the goals are beyond ability. The scientific basis for the goals is still a question.


Low feasibility

Man’s height is a complicated anthropometric character because there are many aspects affecting height, including gene and nutrition.

According to some research works, genetic elements contribute up to 60-80 percent of the difference of height among individuals. Other research works reveal that around 20-40 percent of differences in height are caused by environmental factors, mainly nutrition.

The above research works show that increasing height by nutritious intervention is possible, but nutritious influence to a community is modest.

In general, man’s height increases with time. The later generation is often higher than the previous generation. Sons are often taller than their fathers and daughters are often taller than their mothers.

The increase of height seems to be a law of evolution, which happens in every community and every time (except for wartime). According to a recent survey of 364,538 people in 45 countries, the height rose by 0.13cm annually (1).



Below are the results of other research works in the world:

USA: A research work named Fels Study reveals that after 50 years, American’s height increased only 4.8cm (2).

The Netherlands: A research of women and men of 21 years old shows that men’s height increased from 182cm in 1980 to 184cm in 1997. For women, it rose from 168.3cm to 170.6cm the same time. Within 17 years, the height rose by 2cm for men and 2.3cm for women (3).

China: according to another research in China, in the last three decades, Chinese youth’s height increased by 5.3cm in cities and 5cm in the countryside or around 1.7cm in 10 years (4).

Japan: a research by Dr. Tim Cole shows that in 40 years (1950-1990), Japanese youth’s height rose by 4cm (5).

Vietnam: according to a survey by the National Institute for Nutrition, the height of men from 16-25 years old increased by 2.7cm each ten years during 1976-2006 (6). An unpublished research in HCM City shows that from 2004 to 2009, 18-year-old men’s height increased from 1.2 to 2.4cm and it didn’t increase for women (7).

The above research works show that Vietnamese’s height increased at the highest level in the world. It is difficult to explain why Vietnam’s data is so different from others but data quality may be a matter.

It is only nine years from now to 2020. In 9 years, Vietnam aims to increase its youth’s height by 4cm. When looking at the above research works, there is no country in the world that could achieve it in ten years.


Assumed numbers wrong?

According to the strategy, Vietnamese youth’s current height is 161cm. However, according to a research work on around 1,000 men and women aging from 18 to 30, who were selected randomly in Vietnam’s districts: the average height of men is 169cm and 156cm for women. Vietnam’s population at the age of 18-30 includes around 49.5 percent of men and 50.5 percent of women. As a result, the average height of Vietnamese youth is around 162cm, or 1cm higher than the assumption in the strategy.

The strategy also aims to raise the lifespan to 75 and said that the current lifespan is 73. This is a suspicious number, too.

In 2008, the Vietnam General Statistics Office announced that Vietnam’s lifespan was 72. In 2009, UNDP said that it was 74.3 years, ranking 54th in the world. The number was 74.6 in 2009, according to the World Bank. In 2010, a local source said that it was 72.8 years old. Briefly, Vietnam’s statistics of lifespan are lower than those by international experts. If our current lifespan is 74.6, we are approximately 75. The target of 75 years old for the next 9 years seems to be unrealistic.

The above analysis shows that Vietnam’s goal to increase its youth’s height by 4cm in the next nine years is unrealistic because so far no country in the world has achieved it.

In addition, it is needed to carefully consider the assumed height and lifespan, and to set more practical targets.